This text is from blog famous currency strategist Joel Kruger .
FINDING CLARITY IN THE HODGEPODGE – Not sure I can make much sense of the latest price action in the currency markets. However, there is one thing that has become blatantly clear amidst all of the uncertainty. We are definitely seeing a refreshing breakdown in familiar correlations. For today, the Euro is back on the bid, while the Yen is also finding renewed interest. Meanwhile, the commodity bloc currencies have also come back to life, perhaps on the inability for equity markets to show any contempt at current levels, so close to pre-global crisis highs. Still, my underlying bias remains firmly intact, and I would be on the lookout for any currency rallies against the buck (with the exception of the Yen), to be very well capped in favor of a broad bullish USD trend resumption.
KEY LEVELS TO WATCH AND DON’T FORGET ABOUT US RETAIL SALES – The Euro should stall out somewhere ahead of 1.3550 and reverse course back towards some key rising channel support in the 1.3200′s (at a minimum), while Aussie, Kiwi and Cad are all expected to fall back into line and come back under pressure. AUD/USD should find agressive sell interest towards 1.0400, NZD/USD the same above 0.8450, and USD/CAD should see favorable interest on dips back under parity. As far as the Yen is concerned, I would be watching the previous weekly low at 91.95. A break below 91.95 will set up an extremely compelling bearish outside week formation, and officially open the door for a long overdue healthy corrective pullback. In Tuesday’s commentary I highlighted the risk for a reversal back in favor of the Yen, and it looks like things are already playing out quite nicely. Finally, just a heads up that US retail sales could be a big market mover on Wednesday.