This text is from blog famous currency strategist Joel Kruger .
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2012 – REFLECTIONS – Overall, things are moving in the right direction and my portfolio has been performing quite well since inception back in July of 2012. While I believe the success of the trading has been a product of hard work and dedication, I also believe that the fortune of luck and good timing have played an equally important role. I have been a US Dollar bull for some time now, and have been calling for a major US Dollar bottom since late 2008. Fortunately, when I began trading in July, the opportunity for me to take advantage of this outlook could not have been more inviting. The trick now is to maintain this level of commitment and hang on for what I believe will be a much longer ride.
Forex technical analysis video for today made by Joel:
SEEING THINGS THROUGH – Just to review, I am currently holding positions long USD/JPY (avg cost 78.75), long USD/CAD (avg cost 0.9800), short AUD/USD (avg cost 1.0410), and long EUR/AUD (avg cost 1.2150 with negative carry). I believe all of these positions are just getting going, and would expect to see additional moves in my favor (for each trade) of between 5-15% over the coming weeks and months. I am also very grateful to have found an approach which allows me to blend both the technicals and fundamentals in my everyday analysis. My techno-fundamental approach has been a great comfort, with the driving force behind each idea originating from the chart, and then filtered with fundamentals that might compliment the strategy.
TECHNICAL IS FUNDAMENTAL – To me, technical analysis is the purest form of fundamental analysis. This might sound strange on the surface, but if you think about it for a bit, it actually makes good sense. If we accept the fact that everything is discounted into the price, then looking at a chart is nothing more than looking at a blueprint for the entire makeup of the market. Looking at a chart allows one to see both sides of the coin and determine which side, might at that point in time, offer the more influential and compelling fundamental viewpoint. If the chart looks like it might be wanting to push higher, then we can infer that whatever fundamentals that might drive the price higher are the more relevant fundamentals at that time. Similarly, if the chart shows a bearish bias, then we can infer that the driving fundamentals are those which would ultimately weigh on the security.
IF YOU BUILD IT, HE WILL COME – At the end of the day, no form of analysis can predict the future. So we need to take whatever we have and work as hard as we can with the facts we are given to come up with a well thought out conclusion that guides our directional bias. I believe my techno-fundamental approach to markets has really helped guide my analysis over the past several years and will continue to hone these skills so that I might better my goal of becoming the best possible trader I can be. There is no doubt that I love what I do, and get up each morning excited with the challenges and new opportunities that might present. But the truth is…at the end of the day, you need to be both good and lucky..That being said...I also firmly believe that we make our own luck. 🙂
