This text is from blog famous currency strategist Joel Kruger .
VALUABLE INSIGHTS – True, Tuesday’s price action failed to show any decent follow through from the Monday move, but this is not a bad thing. Sometimes, the most encouraging thing for a trade is to actually see how your position responds when it moves against you after making some fresh headway in the desired direction. Specifically, my outlook has been bearish currencies (short-term Yen and possibly Franc exceptions), global equities, and any other risk correlated asset. Following an impressive Monday move, these risk correlated markets managed to bounce a bit. However, we will start to get a feel for just how real this latest sell-off has been, if the rally can find a lower top and quickly reverse course to fresh weekly lows. All this does is reaffirm the fact that bears are now establishing control and bulls are becoming increasingly tense with existing long positions. Eventually, after bulls realize that rallies continue to fall short of previous peaks, we should get a full on capitulation, where the new bear trend momentum intensifies.
LESSONS FROM THE RING – I would liken this type of phenomenon to a boxer in a ring who has taken quite a beating but then musters enough strength to go on the offensive. He punches and punches and feels like he is starting to finally do some damage. When he pauses to regain composure after his onslaught, it is only then that he really is able to solidify his confidence, realizing that the returning blows from his opponent have softened dramatically. This just serves to further encourage his efforts and helps to ensure victory the next time he goes on the offensive. Right now, bears have hit hard and our now taking some time to play defense, regain composure and find out just how hard the counter punches will be. These counter punches will be quite revealing over the coming sessions, and if they prove to be less impressive than they have been over the course of the year (I think they will), look out below. Some key levels to watch below for bearish confirmation are 1.3015 EUR/USD, 1.0150 AUD/USD, and 1,483 S&P.
