This text is from blog famous currency strategist Joel Kruger .
RALLY LACKS BITE – How much legitimacy can we really assign to this latest currency rally and bout of risk positive trade? Well, with trade kicking back into full gear this week, we will find out soon enough. In my view, the broader trend is still currency and risk bearish, and as such, despite the aggressive nature of this latest push, there is no reason to be discouraged. So why have markets rallied so much over the past couple of days? Some have assigned the moves to positive developments out of Greece and the US in relation to respective structural problems (Greek needing another bailout/US fiscal cliff), while others are more comfortable attributing the price action to razor thin holiday trade. In my view, the latter scenario is the more likely of the two, and the greater risk from here is that we see a retracement back to Wednesday’s closing levels, when markets were still trading with normal liquidity. Last Wednesday, the Euro was trading 1.2835 against the buck.
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PRESERVE AND PROTECT – Still, as a trader, I also need to proceed with caution and can not get caught up so much in what I believe, while disregarding what the markets are actually doing. If I am right, this latest rally will in fact stall out over the coming sessions and we will see a resumption of broad based USD strength and global equity weakness. If however I am proved wrong, and currencies continue to push higher, with the Euro establishing back over 1.3000, then I will happily take to the sidelines and wait for the next clear opportunity to present. As a reminder, we are in the final week of November, and once December hits, things will start to get choppy again. The month of December is quite often a very unpredictable month, and I see no benefit to risking my hard earned profits of the past 5 months. Perhaps I am even a little more cautious than I should be, but given its my first five months of trading on my own, I happily welcome the added layer of protection.
POPCORN AND TRADING – As a side note, for any of you who like trading and movies, I have added a section on jkonfx.com called “Classic Trader Flix.” Feel free to check it out. I will try and put up a new movie each week. Enjoy! 🙂
