This text is from blog famous currency strategist Joel Kruger .
ELECTION RISK OVERRATED – Today’s risk rally can be attributed to nothing other than the re-election of President Obama. However, market participants are rather short-sighted with their views and happy to find comfort in the presidential continuity, despite the irony that the Obama re-election is probably worse for the US and global economy. But the reality is that the result really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme. I don’t believe the election would have had any significant impact on broader price action either way. Once the euphoria fades, we should start to see the resumption of a meaningful broad based US Dollar rally.
See daily forex technical analysis video made by Joel Kruger:
INTRADAY TRADING STRATEGY – Technically, my recommendation would be to look to sell into any aggressive currency rallies against the buck today. I would use the hourly RSI (14 period RSI) as a gauge, and if the indicator is tracking above 80 (or below 20 for USD base currency pairs), a fresh currency short or USD long trade is recommended. For example, if the EUR/USD hourly RSI breaks over 80, look to sell. Conversely, if the USD/CAD hourly RSI breaks below 20, look to buy. Otherwise, stand aside and wait for opportunities to present. Do not force trades.
LOVE YOUR TRADE!! – I have said it a million times and can’t say it enough…..The best risk management rule is to make sure that you LOVE your trades. If you see a trade set-up and just LIKE it….STAY AWAY. When it comes down to it, I am fairly certain that our minds can easily play tricks on us and convince us that we might like a trade. However, it is much more difficult to be convinced that we LOVE something. When you take a trade that you just LIKE, you are also more inclined to be discouraged if the trade doesn’t work out on the grounds that you just liked it and didn’t love it.
POWERFUL RESULTS – If you only take trades you LOVE, three very productive things are likely to happen. 1) You will find that you are no longer forcing trades and trading much more carefully and responsibly. 2) You will also discover that your chances for success have improved dramatically. 3) And finally…If the trade doesn’t go your way, you will be comforted by the fact that you did everything you could (ie you loved it…meaning no room for doubt) but that sometimes markets just don’t go the way we want.
