This text is from blog famous currency strategist Joel Kruger .
BORING WEEK – It’s the final day of trade for the month and markets could be strapped with an added layer of volatility as a result. Overall, things were mostly quiet this week, with the Euro predominantly trading in the 1.2900′s. I must admit, I have been rather disappointed with the price action. I had been looking for a strong resurgence of broad based USD buying into the end of November, that would ultimately carry the US Dollar back to its 2012 highs against most of the major currencies. But instead, the market has deferred to a rather boring bout of consolidation. The Euro has been trying to establish back over 1.3000 most recently, and should we see a close above the figure, it could open the door for additional gains back towards the 1.3200 area into the first week of December.
See daily forex analysis by Joel:
NOT IF BUT WHEN – Nevertheless, the underlying trend still favors a resumption of USD strength and the question really is only a matter of when and not if. Key levels to watch below come in at 1.2940 and then 1.2880 further down. Should we see another topside failure on Friday and break back below 1.2940, this will likely get things going in the desired direction. With the exception of the Yen, most of the other currencies will take their cues from the Euro. Some might outperform against the Euro and others may underperform, but at the end of the day, whichever way EUR/USD decides to go, will likely dictate the general direction in the other currencies. USD/JPY is doing its own thing right now after finally breaking out from a multi-month consolidation and this pair seems intent on rallying at every chance, with sights set on a direct retest of the 2012 high at 84.20. I have been long for some time and would love to add to the position, but will only look to increase exposure on a dip back towards 80.50. Have a good weekend!
