This text is from blog famous currency strategist Joel Kruger .
OOPS…NO FIREWORKS – Well…Wednesday proved to be a bit of a let down, with the markets continuing with the directionless trade, despite the return of a fuller US session. I had thought that the opening of US equities mid-week (post storm), and the end of month flows, would be enough to trigger a fresh wave of volatility, but this was not the case and most markets stayed well within familiar ranges. Still, there were some subtle developments that definitely caught my eye.
See Joel’s forex technical analysis video for November:
WAY WAY DOWN THE ROAD – The Pound suspiciously outperformed on the day, with many attributing the strength to SNB diversification bids. Elsewhere, the Canadian Dollar quickly jumped back below parity (USD/CAD above parity), following a much softer than expected Canada GDP number. Although the selling wasn’t as intense as it could have been, there is likely to be additional pressure on the Loonie, with the softer release exposing the Bank of Canada (in my opinion), after the central bank was perhaps too hawkish in its most recent statement. The Bank of Canada alluded to higher rates down the road. Ya…..well maybe…but way way down the road.
SO HERE’S WHAT I RECOMMEND – Moving on, I still remain aggressively bullish the US Dollar across the board, and believe that when this consolidation eventually does break, the move will be in the Greenback’s favor. Still, in the short-term, the picture is far less clear, and we could still see a bit of pressure on the buck before the anticipated breakout occurs. As such, if you are currently long USDs, hang on and be patient. If you are not holding any long USD exposure, I recommend staying sidelined and waiting for an opportunity to buy the buck into intraday weakness. As far as what to buy the buck against…..it really doesn’t matter…take your pick. If I were to pick one key level to watch as a leading indicator for all markets, it would be the 1.2800 level in EUR/USD. A break below 1.2800 will likely open a material shift in the construct of the broader markets.
