This text is from blog famous currency strategist Joel Kruger .
NO TURKEYS ON THANKSGIVING – Ok..so it’s Thanksgiving and I am always amazed to see just how Turkey’d (Joel’s word for tentative, uncertain, afraid to trade) the other sessions can get with the knowledge the US markets won’t be there to close things out. Having said that, it actually hasn’t exactly been so quiet this time round. The Euro has since rallied back over 1.2800, with a combination of 1) optimism that a deal will in fact get done with Greece 2) solid China PMI data…and 3) some rather dovish Fed Williams comments, all seen driving the single currency higher against the buck. Meanwhile, USD/JPY has still managed to extend gains, with the pair contemplating the establishment above next big figure resistance at 83.00. Funny how in a mater of days we are already this close to testing the 2012 high at 84.20, a level which many were projecting would not be tested until well into 2013 (if at all). Yet technically, there has been no change to the broader outlook, and my recommendation would be to look to sell any and all currencies on rallies against the buck.
See Thanksgiving day forex technical analysis video made by Joel:
SO WHAT ARE THE BEST TRADES OUT THERE? – Specifically, this means look to fade Euro rallies towards 1.2900. I highly recommend selling at 1.2880, with an objective of no less than 1.2500, and stop-loss only on a close basis above 1.3000. Although USD/JPY is still seen much higher over the medium and longer-term, we could be very close to some corrective selling in the pair. My recommendation here would be to only look to buy (NOT SELL) on intraday oversold moves, where the hourly RSI is tracking at 20 or below. I know it might be very tempting to take a shot at fading this latest surge, but I have a very hard time endorsing such a position, even when the short-term technicals are so compelling, given my well advertised long USD/JPY position. For those of you trading AUD/USD, selling this pair if EUR/USD tests 1.2880 (wherever it AUD/USD might be trading at the time), or selling AUD/USD on a break back below Wednesday’s low at 1.0340 is the preferred strategy. But far and away the best trade of the day without question is Long FAMILY/MARKETS. I entered this position earlier and will be looking to book profit and reverse early Monday 🙂 .
